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Discrete Distributions (Alatissa expert in probability theory)

  • Edwerk
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Re: Discrete Distributions (Alatissa, Probability Theory Expert)

2 weeks 5 days ago - 2 weeks 5 days ago
#439
I would like to extend a special thanks to Alatissa for the fresh answers that have passed new tests in the field of probability.

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  • Alatissa
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Re: Discrete Distributions (Alatissa, Probability Theory Expert)

2 weeks 11 hours ago - 2 weeks 11 hours ago
#440
When betting on 8 numbers
p=8/37 (0.21621621621)
The probability that the bet will win immediately = 0.21621621621
via spin = 0.169466764 (29/37 * 8/37)
through two spins = 0.13282530156 (29/37 * 29/37 * 8/37)
after three spins = 0.1041063174 (29/37 * 29/37 * 29/37 * 8/37)
after four spins = 0.081596843 (29/37 * 29/37 * 29/37 * 29/37 * 8/37)
etc.

The bet will play immediately - this is a distance of 0
through the spin - distance 1,
etc.

If we sum up the probabilities of distances: 0, 1 and 2
then it will work
0.21621621621 + 0.169466764 + 0.13282530156 = 0.51850828 ≈ 0.52 (52%)
This means that distances 0, 1 and 2 will occur approximately half the time in the total number of distances.

If we sum up the probabilities of distances: 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4
then it will work
0.21621621621 + 0.169466764 + 0.13282530156 + 0.1041063174 + 0.081596843 = 0.704211442 ≈ 0.7 (70%)
This means that distances 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 will make up approximately 70% of the total number of distances.



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Re: Discrete Distributions (Alatissa, Probability Theory Expert)

2 weeks 11 hours ago - 2 weeks 11 hours ago
#441
Alatissa wrote:

When betting on 8 numbers
p=8/37 (0.21621621621)
The probability that the bet will win immediately = 0.21621621621
via spin = 0.169466764 (29/37 * 8/37)
through two spins = 0.13282530156 (29/37 * 29/37 * 8/37)
after three spins = 0.1041063174 (29/37 * 29/37 * 29/37 * 8/37)
after four spins = 0.081596843 (29/37 * 29/37 * 29/37 * 29/37 * 8/37)
etc.


Explanation for beginners
through spin = 0.169466764 (29/37 * 8/37)

The probability that the bet will win immediately = 8/37 = 0.21621621621
The probability that a bet of 8 numbers will miss =
a) (1-0.2162) is the reciprocal of the win for the current spin
or
b) ((37-8)/37) = (29/37) OTHER numbers will come up, except for the 8 that are needed

Therefore, the rate W
through spin = 0.169466764 (29/37 * 8/37)
Indicates that the first spin will produce any other number and only then the desired one from 8.
If you bet on red in a casino and you're stubbornly unlucky, try betting on red!

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Re: Discrete Distributions (Alatissa, Probability Theory Expert)

2 weeks 11 hours ago - 2 weeks 11 hours ago
#442
Alatissa wrote: When betting on 8 numbers

If we sum up the probabilities of distances: 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4
then it will work
0.21621621621 + 0.169466764 + 0.13282530156 + 0.1041063174 + 0.081596843 = 0.704211442 ≈ 0.7 (70%)
This means that distances 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 will make up approximately 70% of the total number of distances.





Therefore, the player can think in terms of not just a single guess, but in terms of specific betting blocks. One step equals four spins. These blocks can be linked into a common step-by-step strategy with a global BRM.
"8 numbers with 4 spins"
A strategy built on such blocks has a probability W of more than 70% at each of its steps.
If you bet on red in a casino and you're stubbornly unlucky, try betting on red!

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Re: Discrete Distributions (Alatissa, Probability Theory Expert)

2 weeks 11 hours ago - 2 weeks 11 hours ago
#443
Alatissa
Thank you for bringing the light of knowledge to players. Without a deep understanding of casino mathematics, you can't beat them.
If you bet on red in a casino and you're stubbornly unlucky, try betting on red!

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