☄ alt2005 reveals the math behind roulette and answers questions

I liked the post because Alt had a turning point. He finally realized that a LOCAL GAME SESSION is a different reality. There's no point in relying on something that works on millions of spins.

The next step = recognition of the ADAPTIVE... and things will go well )))

Good post. I just won't like it.
Nothing changes. Undisguised arrogance and an assault on the other person's self-esteem.

Quote:Message from Edwerk

For example, my colleague Klyukvin from Moscow left his job a long time ago, wins with his own head and teaches how to win, like Grigory Hoffman.

If someone has a winning strategy worth millions of euros, they won't show it to others. Unless they're an idiot. But idiots don't invent such strategies. Idiots are the ones who believe in them.

Since I'm here anyway, I'll express some seditious thoughts for which every self-respecting mathematician is simply obliged to kill me.

Let's remember the blonde who was asked what the odds of meeting a dinosaur on the street were. And she answered: 50/50 – either you meet her or you don't. Before laughing at the girl, let's consider what probability really is. When we talk about a number coming up, everyone replies: yeah, 37 numbers – that means the probability is 1/37. So what's the point of that statement? It's that guessing the number is a one in 37 chance. That's the catch. It simply means that on AVERAGE, out of 37 throws, we'll get it right once. But in reality, out of 37 throws, a third of the numbers won't come up at all. Moreover, to get close to this average, you need about 1,000 throws, and in my opinion, at least 2,000. And according to the mathematical definition, we're talking about ONE single throw. But do you understand that on this one spin, you can't predict anything at all? Absolutely not. Only with a large number of spins can we say for sure that each number will appear a certain number of times on average. For example, with 3,700 spins, each number will appear an average of 100 times. What does this information mean? Nothing.

Let's say planes crash on average once in 10,000 flights. Is this information useful for a passenger boarding an airplane? No. Because this information suggests that out of 10,000 abstract flights, some one flight (also abstract) will be catastrophic. Does that make the person sitting on the crashing plane feel any better? I doubt it. Moreover, if this is the 100th time they're flying, they won't be able to fly the remaining 9,900 times to reach that statistic. As sad as that is. So what is the real probability of a disaster on a specific flight? It's 1/2—either they make it, or they don't. Same thing with that universally despised blonde.

The probability of guessing the number on a single spin is also 1/2: either you guess right or you don't. And nothing else. Now, if you play 1,000, 10,000, a million times—then yes, the average relative frequency of guessing will approach the abstract mathematical probability of 1/37. But if that's the case, then maybe we should throw away the classic definition of probability as the ratio of favorable outcomes to the total number of outcomes? We should also throw away MO -2.7. Which I did with pleasure. And I introduced my own definition of probability, an interval one. Which allows me to move away from the universal idol MO = -2.7.

Modern mathematics is completely incapable of analytically working with the number of events at which the law of large numbers comes into play—a truly immutable law of theory of probability. How many different outcomes are there in at least 100 spins? 37 to the hundredth power. Does anyone imagine that number? I doubt it. It's 6.6 times 10 to the 156th power. The distance to the nearest galaxy is approximately 2 times 10 to the 25th power millimeters. That's a number trillions of trillions of times smaller than the number of outcomes in just 100 spins! And what are 100 spins? It's nothing. In reality, you need to consider at least 10,000 spins. And what kind of mathematics can calculate that many outcomes? Only approximations, which are completely unnecessary. Therefore, all this talk about the expected value of strategies is empty blah-blah-blah. Forget about modern mathematics when applied to roulette. It's completely irrelevant. I mean, it won't help you win at all.

So what then? Just statistical analysis. I've already found so many patterns there that even super-duper scientists like Poincaré, Einstein, and other authorities couldn't possibly see using formulas. None. Which means they're not authorities to me. Just old, ancient crocodiles, green ones. Einstein, who supposedly claimed that the only way to win at roulette is by stealing chips from the table—is he really an authority? He's a king of relativity, but a complete novice at roulette. No, those scientists were brilliant for their time, and worthy of every respect in their field. Compared to them, I'm just some kind of pygmy.

But in this specific problem, is it really necessary to focus on crocodiles? Personally, I'm not a zoologist or a botanist, so no. Use your brains, gentlemen. And let the crocodiles sit in their ponds, lakes, or wherever they live.

But if anyone thinks they can simply throw mathematics into the trash and ignore it entirely, they're sorely mistaken. Mathematics in roulette is a merciless enemy for those who ignore it. And you have to know your enemy. Otherwise, you'll always be completely screwed. Like some forum members, for example. One of those perpetual losers is you, Edwerk.

Alt2005

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