Sports betting - best strategies

Let's say that my answer is not from the position of a poker player or a forum user, but from the position of a person who has some experience in this topic)

As for cappers with hundreds of millions of dollars... Well, there are people who win the lottery too) I'm not talking about some Americans who made a lot of money on horse racing and baseball in the 90s)

You need to be closer to reality, can an ordinary person earn a stable income on bets? Do you have a strategy where there will be 5-10% ROI over a distance of 1000+ bets on the line of top offices?

CIS offices are for fun (although PM, oddly enough, paid me for a long time on the first account before cutting it). But European ones also cut accounts in a hurry, if you haven't encountered this yet, then I don't even know. WH, unibet, coral, bet365, eights will easily and simply cut your accounts (usually betting limits) only, if you're lucky, after 300-400 euros of profit. And there were cases when they cut an account for 4 (!) bets, although 2 of them were drained, but they see what kind of bet it is, the value. So about European offices this is some kind of saying. Well, or they have changed dramatically over the past year, that I have not done this.

Only the pinka allows to bet almost without limits and withdrawal without limits. But they have the strongest and most correct line, there only forecasting is better than their forecasters - will give a result. Can many do this?

What statistics are we talking about? What can you know in 2019 that others can't?) There are entire portals, like soccerway, squack, huskored, etc., where professional sports analysts work, they dedicate their lives to this, including forecasts. And no one made millions of dollars there.
But if you say it's possible, then you can do it, I guess? At least 10 thousand a month. Or 5. Then let me in on the secret

Alexey! Are you not a poker player from the GSM forum? They are also driving everyone crazy about negative expectation! The most famous cappers have earned hundreds of millions of dollars on sports and no roulette players can even come close, and the number of such people is much greater than successful roulette players! What you wrote reminds me of the conversations of ordinary people about the fact that it is impossible to make money in casinos and bookmakers, and all the strategies that you gave as an example are imposed on everyone on the Internet by bookmakers, which means they are not working! The most important weapon against bookmakers is statistics! The most accurate of all sciences! But what you need for successful sports betting is not on the Internet! You need to look for and collect it yourself, just like in roulette, no one will give you a ready-made recipe! As for withdrawing winnings, everything is very simple, do not get involved with bookmakers from the CIS, now the hottest trend is Asian offices, in the fight for the client they calmly allow you to make multi-million dollar bets and withdraw winnings, and European bookmaker sharks have not gone anywhere!

Betting is a dead topic in the long run.
You need to win money first, and then withdraw it.
Any strategy has its drawbacks, which will lead to a drain in the long run.
There are really only 3 ways to supposedly beat the bookmaker:

1) Forks. Here, fork scanners are in action and simple forking between bookmakers gives you a little profit, no matter the events.
But. All fork bettors are cut very quickly and it literally becomes boring to keep money in 20-30 offices and do all this for the sake of a couple of percent of profit. In addition, any delay, a special glitch or your sluggishness and that's it - you put on one fork shoulder, and the second shoulder has already dropped the odds and you are in the minus. In addition, where to get hundreds of accounts with approvals (sometimes and videos) to constantly and normally earn on this hemorrhoid?
2) Value bets. Everything is clear here, you should find events in the line that you consider overvalued by the bookmaker. Those where the probability of the event you assume is higher than the bookmaker thinks. But firstly, such events in serious offices (they missed the line shift, bad software, etc.) are few, and in all sorts of homeless offices you will again not be paid anything for nothing, you will wait for these verifications for weeks and months, and then they will cut your account and that's it.
3) You are a genius analyst, you can estimate the probability better than teams of professional analysts in bookmakers. You beat the line at a distance and can afford to play in Pinnacle or SBObet, which allow pro players to play and do not cut accounts. But then you will never be found on this or any other similar forum))

I'm not talking about the options of all sorts of insiders or small market specialists. Yes, there are some, but how many are there? And decent offices almost never give detailed coverage of all sorts of 3 Irish leagues, and you can't earn much on P1-P2).

So bets are essentially the same roulette. Here -2.7 and "luck", which sometimes allows you to go up. And there the role of -2.7 is played by the bookmakers' margin, included in the odds. Only usually more than 2.7. 5-7, and the impudent ones have 10%.
There is no adaptive, of course, but it is also impossible to calculate the results (:

Big Data and Sports Betting

Sports analytics have changed the way sports interact directly with fans. Tennis, for example, uses advanced tennis analytics to determine the capabilities of an opponent. The data is based on metrics such as a player’s strength, past results, number of points scored in serves, and the strength of his opponent. Football clubs can also now use sophisticated algorithms to gather information about the strength of their opponents. Data is transforming sports. This is inevitably reflected in the sports betting segment.

Big Data is rapidly being introduced into sports betting. Some players in the market have already started developing forecasting models that can be adapted to both individual and team sports. However, not everything can be automated. For example, an electronic system will not be able to predict things like a player’s injury. Therefore, the human contribution to analytics is still incomparable.

Arbitrage bets, or "forks"

Arbitrage betting is a complex move. It is the simultaneous placing of bets from different accounts on different outcomes of the same event. It is a betting system that guarantees a profit regardless of the outcome. However, the difficulty lies in understanding how to determine the discrepancy between the odds and how to exploit it. When assessing the market, betting providers usually always take into account the spread. In this case, the probabilities calculated on the basis of the probabilities of all outcomes are more than 100%. However, using different accounts, it is possible to catch events where this amount is less than 100%. Such players try to get a negative spread and thus ensure a risk-free profit. But bookmakers identify such players and punish them by blocking them.

Value bets – what is it?

Compared to arbitrage betting, value betting increases the volatility of the bettor's winnings. However, he will be rewarded for the additional risk he takes. In simple terms, value bets are those bets that the bettor believes the bookmaker has undervalued completely.

Let's look at the following example. Team A is playing at odds of 2.5 to win. This means that this particular bookmaker believes that Team A has a 40% chance of winning. However, you have done your own research and studied the market. According to your predictions, the real probability of Team A winning is 60%. This means that the odds should be 1.66. In this case, you calculate the value as follows: (0.6 × 2.5) - 1 = 50%. This team has a 50% chance of winning.

This discrepancy is currently one of the subjects of study for betting analysts.

licedey wrote:

Hello,
About a year ago I ran into this forum and created a post. Back then the scale of the problem was not so big and I was more afraid of going on a drinking binge after the game than stopping playing altogether. And the stopcock always worked. I played for a maximum of half a salary or so, always having a stash. But things took a serious turn when I started playing for larger amounts and I started to succeed. Constantly succeeded, until the last week. And here's what happened.

All my adult life I tried to have a stash, money for a rainy day, because in our country you never know when it will come. When you get sick, something happens, you get fired from work, a revolution starts, a war, and perhaps you will have to "start the tractor" and get out of here wherever your feet lead. So you are constantly on the lookout, keeping a few packs of greens under the sofa, in case you quickly retreat.

Last year I had a great idea. Why not put my stash on a really sure match. I've been playing football since I was a kid and I know a lot about it, at one time I even received a local newspaper prize for guessing 9 out of 11 matches. But the point is different. The event was obvious, and getting $4,000 in one day is a great result, which is more than a month of writing code until your eyes bulge (yes, I'm a freelance IT specialist).
And I won. Easily. And without thinking, I withdrew the money and put it under my pillow again. But the idea that you can make 50%+ on the right outcomes settled in my head probably forever.

The next stage was more risky bets. And I won again. This time 4 times more than I had bet. I proudly gave away 2-3 thousand dollars to my relatives and went on a drinking spree. The accumulated tension, stress and unwillingness to do anything after such a jackpot took me out of life for 3 weeks.

I miraculously did not lose my clients, from whom I was giving the cold shoulder and who were basically of little interest, after winning a half-year salary from a month. But I got through this period too, not without the help of psychiatrists and the support of my loved ones.

Then there were several more visits to the so-called "sure bets", with a frequency of once a month. I poured in 15 thousand - lost. Then I poured in 30 and began to win wildly, 40 matches out of 40, which turned out to be 100. During these days, I could not think about anything, could not read, eat, walk. In my head there were only calculations of upcoming matches, reading forecasts, statistics sites. When I lost 20 thousand on the next match, I told myself stop and withdrew what was left, while still remaining in a good plus.

There is one but. I played once a month, of course for the emotions, euphoria, dopamine, which is completely absent in my work from home. And outside the home too. This is the only form of entertainment, if you do not count the recently acquired PS4, but it is not the same. The point is that 2 years ago I set a goal to buy an apartment for my parents, who clearly live in a bad place. There is a war there now. And I confidently went towards this goal, saved up the entire amount, not without the help of bets and was about to buy. But, as I already wrote, I definitely need a stash under the couch to feel more or less confident. And if I invested in an apartment, I would be left with almost nothing. Therefore, it was decided to go to bets again and click on a small profit for the future.

The main thing is that I consciously understood that most likely, this time I might not be lucky. Previously, I would slip through by a miracle, when the coveted goal was scored in extra time, and the bet was all-in. But as you probably know well, consciousness is one thing, and the subconscious has already decided everything. Having waited until Monday, I poured all my accumulated funds (54k) into the bookmaker. Then a very dull match of outsiders was played. I bet half on a goal by one team - they could not score, but at the same time attacked the whole game. Then in live I decided to put the remaining half on the attacking team not losing. And in the 93rd minute they missed, and I lost everything. 2 years of savings, work, nerves and hopes evaporated in two clicks. I did not know what to do, like a child who was taken away from his only toy and left alone in the middle of the street.

I had no choice but to save the situation. I don't say anything to my relatives or my wife, because you know why. There were still about $20k lying under the bottomless couch. Again, consciously understanding that I was in a delirious state and that I wouldn't win, but would rather impulsively click the wrong button, I still took the rest of my savings to the bookmaker. I couldn't think about anything else the whole day, locked myself in the room and read all the statistics. I collected an express and won. I collected a second express and lost. Then I collected it again... the ending is a bit predictable. I again lost the entire amount and hammered the last nail into the coffin of my bright future.

Lost $75,000 in 3 days

What now?
Gentlemen, I don't know what to do. I've lost everything that I've been saving for 2 years. My goal of buying an apartment has gone down the drain. I understand perfectly well that gambling is evil. Sometimes, the thought comes - "But how many times has it worked out?" But even when it did, my soul felt really bad and I dropped out of life for a long time, both during the game and after.
From what I had enough strength for. I asked the office starting with 1 to lock my account. To which I received the answer: "Hello. Accounts are not deleted. If the game account is not used for 3 months, it is considered "inactive" and blocked." And I can't give you confidence that I won't be carried away one fine day to have fun for 5 thousand dollars. And if I win, I will go again and again, and probably so until I win back everything, which will not happen even with the greatest luck. But I will believe in it, that it can work out ... What to do with them? At least on betfair there was such an option ...

Question two: How can I live with this?
It's like a lifelong loser's mark, a blow to self-esteem. If I take on any business, I'll remember that I'm an impulsive schizoid who can ruin a project or the whole business in one day. The same story with work. I'll continue to earn money, and theoretically in the same year or two I'll save up for an apartment again, but how can I not break down and speed up the process through gambling... I understand with my brain, but emotions + fast cash are stronger. Plus these bookmaker ads on every corner and from every iron.

The third thing that breaks me is how to tell my loved ones or not about what happened. Even though the money is mine, and not a loan, and there are no problems in the family, my wife, to put it mildly, will not understand this. Just like my parents, they will remind me of this epic fail at every opportunity. Is it better to avoid answering?

Ahead is just fog and despair. This fail will haunt me all my life, and I don't know how to cover it up to regain my self-confidence. And the worst thing is to return to the game and fall deeper into the hole. As someone wrote here, it all started with the desire to win back a stolen car, and now - loans, debts, cops...

Where to go, how to live on?

Reinforced concrete stakes licedey.

Tomatoes or whatever you have on hand are about to fly at me, but I'll tell you how it was for me and why it worked in the short term. My scheme worked like this. I watched the Euro Championship matches that would be on the weekend. I knew perfectly well what form the team was in and what their chances were. How they played away, at home, their form, injuries, basically everything. And I chose the result with a reserve in case of force majeure. For example, Barcelona-Villarreal, I took a win or a draw for Barca, who have only won at home this season. But of course, guessing before the match is one thing, but during the game it happens completely differently. That's why I always went live. If the team dominated the entire half, I bet that they would not lose the half. If they were running to recoup, I bet that they would score. If it was clear that the attack was wooden, I bet that the opponent would not lose. And so in live I was lucky time after time. About 38 matches with low odds out of 40 came in. Those two fails, when force majeure happened, like two goals in 5 minutes - I flew in for a quarter of the bank or so. Then I lost my temper and either poured in more, or withdrew.

This is not a scheme. And if it always worked, I would not be on this forum. I just wanted to say that I played this way and won often. Having self-control to stop in time when your head is already completely foggy. Now I don't have it.