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Progressions in the game for money

  • DLK
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Progressions in the game for money

1 month 3 weeks ago - 1 month 3 weeks ago
#1
If you play dozens, you have a balance growth line three spins long from the entry point. If the desired dozen comes later, then the bet no longer brings a profit that covers the costs incurred and the credit is gradually eaten up.

This statement is true for all types of roulette bets - each has its own break-even point for even bets.

Progressions allow you to push these boundaries significantly, but at what cost?

To create a progression, additional significant financial investments will always be required. And if the new breakeven point is not enough to squeeze out the current imbalance, the consequences can be fatal for the player's credit.

"Exceptions are rather the rule."

Long spin skews of the RNG itself, combined with the casino adaptive system, make progressions very dangerous for the player in an online casino.

How to use progressions correctly is the topic of this discussion.

Start of discussion ADM13 , on 21 January 12:45
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InquisitorEA, 02/17/2014 09:59
InquisitorEA
In my opinion, progressions are not a winning tool. Progressions are catalysts for the results of the actions of the methods embedded in the strategy. Examples:

Y - number of games to get $100.
X is the progression factor (the acceleration factor for achieving the result). X > 1.

1) The basic strategy of NIMB includes certain methods of playing the game.
- without progression the result is positive. (result = Y). Without progression we get a certain amount of positive balance for Y games.
- with progression the result is positive. (result = Y/X). With progression we get a certain amount of positive balance for a smaller number of games.

2) The Virtual Coin-8 strategy includes certain methods of playing the game.
- without progression the result is negative. (result = Y). Without progression we get a certain amount of negative balance for Y games.
- with progression the result is negative. (result = Y/X). With progression we get a certain amount of negative balance for a smaller number of games.

In simple terms: without progression we can get $100 for 100 games; with progression we can get $100 for, say, 10 games.

Conclusions:
1) Progression does not change the outcome of the strategy's actions.
2) Progression accelerates the achievement of the results of the strategy's actions.
3) Correct and incorrect application of the strategy determines the magnitude of the progression factor.

P.S. I don’t claim to know the truth.
If you bet on red in a casino and you're stubbornly unlucky, try betting on red!
  • DLK
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Re: Progressions in the game for money

1 month 3 weeks ago - 1 month 3 weeks ago
#2
InquisitorEA, 01/20/2012 15:21
InquisitorEA
What I think. We'll get out of the hole, but in the normal mode we'll be pulled to the minus again (since we've climbed into it in the normal mode). We'll get a two-way tendency to zero OVERALL. But this is without taking into account the new ladder of orders, since I haven't assessed it in action yet. I'd like to add to my observations that about every third game the bot drains ~100-150 chips per session on sixlines (the progression can't withstand it).
ADM13, 20.01.2012 14:52
ADM13
First results of Lotus:

1) 140 games in total, incl.
60 completed with a minus
80 completed with a plus

2) the minus is deep in most cases: on average up to -200 chips, and the plus in many cases is insignificant (caused by games with immersion and further return to the initial credit without attempting further growth).

3) Almost all games (even negative ones) have a clearly expressed positive trend.
For example: start 300 min 154 max 373 finish 154
the actual result of this order is -146 chips, but it could have been +73, and there are a lot of such orders.

Conclusions for setting up the bot algorithm.
- Let's introduce an additional condition to the stop-loss when OVERALL drops: "Little by little".
If the pool OVERALL is negative, the bot ends any game when the +30 chips threshold is exceeded.
If the pool OVERALL is positive, the bot algorithm works in normal mode.

Forecast:
- We will almost halve the number of minus games,
let's bring statistics to proportion
75% for +++
25% for ---
and then, using a large number of small +++, we will carefully remove OVERALL from the hole.
InquisitorEA, 12/10/2011 13:24
InquisitorEA
For example, we lost the first block of the chain (0.01), and on the second (0.03) we started winning, reached 500 chips and the drain began. I suggest making not a standard stop loss, but a stop loss on the amount on which we would be in the plus, taking into account the loss in the first block of the chain.
Click, 02.12.2011 17:04
Click
maybe stop losses can be made not only by BR thresholds but also added to them
10% of every win?

the machine reaches +120+140 chips several times (I understand the threshold is +150) and the game ends with its own. This is probably wrong :-)
InquisitorEA, 11/21/2011 02:58
InquisitorEA
"...then the picture +++ and --- will become completely different."
That's why I wanted to see how BR would behave. I don't understand why you RIGHT AWAY claim the tactics are a failure, I personally don't see such obviousness. I'm unlikely to add anything else to what I've written until I see the practical result. It will be easier to come up with restrictions after testing the effectiveness of the tactics in its original form.
ADM13, 20.11.2011 19:31
ADM13
As suggested by tactics from InquisitorEA:

1) Feller always plays on 9 numbers of the forecast parent + 9 numbers with the required shift along the wheel from the parent = considers 18 bet fields.
2) Due to what (F) is less than 18?
a) Sometimes these two sectors intersect.
b) The InquisitorEA exception works (w 1-5)
3) The machine always counts the current Feller. When we enter the polarity, then (AF) is ALL track numbers that are not included in the current (F) = invert the rate (F).
This is how the combination of +++ and --- that the machine displays is obtained.

The question arises: If we start placing numbers F and AF not all at once, calculated according to the algorithm, but starting from 1 number - the center of the bet (and we have two of them at once), and with each move expand it to the sides, then the picture of +++ and --- will become completely different.
Therefore, in the vast majority of cases, it will not be possible to solve a block in 8-9 moves.
If we have understood the Idea correctly..........(still digesting).

It would be better to think about a number of other rule exceptions.
Which numbers from all the numbers on the wheel CAN STILL BE EXCLUDED for the next move?
This will increase the efficiency of the machine several times.
ADM13, 11/17/2011 20:20
ADM13
Another step in the Lotus strategy:
1) As the series develops, the intensity of the game's risk increases and this brings its positive results.
2) Let's try to implement the following mechanism -
as soon as +100 +150 chips are earned, the intensity returns to the original parameters

Let me remind you that the bet is always calculated from the current BR, but gradually increases the more spins have already been played.
ADM13, 11/17/2011 20:14
ADM13
We introduced the Feller-Antifeller shift in Lotus (a sharp change in the polarity of bets, despite the controversial financial efficiency, has the goal of knocking down the adaptive casino). The received story from Hutorok about how in life an electric signal is transmitted over long distances via main power grids only confirmed the correctness of the innovations.
ADM13, 11/16/2011 10:29
ADM13
The selection of the bet size is based on a self-regulating system that uses three parameters:
1) current BR
2) move inside the block
3) the total number of spins already completed in the session.

We are currently selecting the optimal values so that moves 1-5 within a block would bring not only WIN but also profit in relation to the amount of credit at the entrance to the block.
And at the same time, I don’t want to sacrifice 50% of the total BR for one forecast block.
InquisitorEA, 11/15/2011 15:51
InquisitorEA
Several restrictions for fixing the winnings:
1) If from the beginning of the session there are 2 consecutive WINs, then STOP. This is quite a good win (x1.5-2) and at the same time a guarantee against the subsequent potential wave of losses, which may be the last in this session.
2) If in any segment of the session there are 5 consecutive WINs, then STOP. Even if we started with a low BR value, then at least we will return to the nominal value, and tempting fate, waiting for the 6th WIN in a row is not reasonable.
3) If at the beginning of the session the game goes into a good plus, then STOP when approaching the BR nominal as close as possible. It may not be possible to go from 100-200 to >300, but at least we will not lose the plus of the session.
ADM13, 11/14/2011 09:31
ADM13
We continue the short film mode (the episodes are not combined into a session).

The working shoulder is too small and does not provide space; we increase it to the old dimensions.

We still make the progression within the block to increase, but taking into account the current loan:
0.5% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% (per room from BR)

? Narrowing the betting range greatly reduces the block resolution.
Mira, 12.11.2011 22:07
Mira
according to probability theory, wins and losses should be grouped
go through several WIN and LOSS in a row?
InquisitorEA, 12.11.2011 14:24
InquisitorEA
Two wins in a row rarely happen. Maybe it's better to bet not according to the formula in one next move, but just 1 chip per number? If we win, we're in the black, and if we lose, we don't lose a bunch of chips. You can do this not only in one next move, but also in two, three...
Coin_8, 12.11.2011 00:16
Coin_8
I will briefly outline my thoughts on the size of the bets.
1) Self-regulating bet - a fixed fraction (F) of the player's BR (depending on the type of bets, the probability of winning (V), the size of Profit (P) and Loss (L) based on the result of the move).
F = ((P/L+1)*V-1)*L/P
Since the positive MO is in the roulette rules, we calculate the optimal fraction for the casino (9 numbers bet):
In our case (for the casino!):
winning P = 36-28 = 8
loss L = 28
probability of winning V = 28/37 = 0.7568
F = ((8/28+1)*0.7568-1)*28/8 = 9.44%
That is, with BR=300 chips, the casino would like our bet to be 28.32 = 28 chips per move. And then a positive MO will leave no chance for a stable win.

3) Casino (player with positive MO) if it exceeds its optimal fraction by more than 2 times
can hit crazy loss progressions with normal V.

4) I propose to increase the BR of Lotus to 1000 chips and see what will happen with the BR fraction on our side at the current rate: 9.44*2 = 18.88% = 19%

P.S. A dodgy option, considering that it won't be the casino that's "in the black", but Feller :-)
Coin_8, 11.11.2011 23:11
Coin_8
Resetting the walk graphs every time the forecast parent changes forced us to change the architecture of the algorithm significantly. There was confusion with Z - W calculations for several days.
Now in "Feller's Machine" that option. In Lotus the indices are correct and the periods of empty spins have sharply decreased. The forecast began to appear more often and the question became more acute: actually the subject of this discussion is "The best betting progression"?
Coin_8, 11.11.2011 17:34
Coin_8
Reduce empty moves by % of clues? Original!!!
Of course, the maximum expectation of the sector is a long wait,
but let's make the choice of parent at least Z>12.
InquisitorEA, 11/11/2011 08:17
InquisitorEA
Very (very!) many empty moves. For 100 spins, sometimes you can only make a couple of bets. Maybe expand the W-index range to 1-9? In this case, according to the value of index meetings in the reports, we will just equalize the W-index and Z-index with each other. At the same time, the number of empty spins will decrease.
I mean that, as it seems to me, the optimization of the strategy went in the wrong direction. A strong reduction in the number of bets on a constant volume of spins is not good. This way you can run into 0 bets per game :D
Heiskanen, 11.11.2011 06:30
Heiskanen
what to do with long gaps

The RNG generates a continuous stream of numbers
if the algorithm is universal, then it doesn't matter to it at what moment it connects to this feed
empty spins is when the algorithm waits for the maximum expectation?
in the Feller machine there were cases when a couple of columns up to 60 moves grew in parallel

so here it is
if you need a forecast center try to take the current maximum and not wait until it becomes the largest

ADM13, 10.11.2011 12:08
ADM13
7-7-7-7 occurs once a year
7-7-7 several times a month

Let's enter "Sumiala Exception" into Lotus:
from the numbers for the bet we remove those that have the same step difference with the two previous spins.

Example: 0.0, excl. 0 (step 0)
1.4, excl. 7 (step 3)
12, 18, excl. 24 (step 4)
etc.
Sumiala, 10.11.2011 09:48
Sumiala
roulette throws chaotically? maybe it is worth removing the numbers of the order system from the player's bet. chaos and order are opposite?

1-2-3-4-5 order, I've never seen this in roulette!
1-4-2-5-3 chaos of such throws in droves!
ADM13, 09.11.2011 21:36
ADM13
Entering Lotus (fine optimization of the Feller Automat roulette strategy)
new block "InquisitorEA Amendment":
"...
1) You need to place bets according to Feller where the indices belong to ranges (Idea 1, point 4).
2) You need to place bets on Anti-Feller where the indices do not belong to the ranges (Idea 1, point 4).
Judging from the examples, we don't make some hypothetical winning bets, but more significantly, we don't make many hypothetical losing bets.
..."
We completely agree!
Coin_8, 08.11.2011 09:06
Coin_8
Dear Sir, your conclusions are made exactly the opposite:

1) Feller won 66 out of 99 in 5 moves = 66.667%
2) Loss in 5 moves of betting 9 chips = 24.82% So the win is the inverse of 100% and will be 100-24.82 = 75.18%

This means that Feller WORSENES the regular RNG by almost 10%.
Then the "Golden Key" (Anti-Feller) has the right to exist.

But! Hutorok only took the beginning of the 1st block sessions, but what happened in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th....?
It is important to remember that everything goes in waves: falls and rises. The global trend (the vector of the general direction of movement) can only be traced in a large number of games.
Click, 08.11.2011 08:55
Click
If you bet 9 numbers randomly, then on average 9/37 should be guessed 24.32% of the moves?
And then 24.32% remains a constant value.
But to lose when something from the remaining (37-9) = 28 numbers falls out with each move:
1- 28/37 = 75.675%
2- 28/37 * 28/37 = 57.26%
3- 28/37 * 28/37 * 28/37 = 43.34%
4- 32,795%
5- 24.82%
6- 18.78%
7- 14.22%
8- 10.76%
9- 8.26%
etc.
If you stretch the progression over 9 moves, you will lose once every 10 games.

To see if Feller gives the promised advantage, I counted all the reports in the machine = 99 pcs.
I took only the beginning of the session. I looked when WIN hit the first 5 moves of the block.
It turned out to be 99 sessions started:
1 - 21 pcs.
2 - 11 pcs.
3 - 12 pcs.
4 - 8 pcs.
5 - 14 pcs.


total 66 wins in 5 moves out of 99 games. This = 66.6666666%
On TV the winning rate for a 5-move is 100% - 24.82% = 75.18%

Feller gives almost 10% advantage!!!!!




InquisitorEA, 07.11.2011 14:44
InquisitorEA
Maybe it's just me, but I noticed that if there are a lot of empty spins and then 3-4 bets, then the concentration of winnings is higher and there are fewer losses than with a small number of empty spins and many bets in a row.
InquisitorEA, 06.11.2011 21:57
InquisitorEA
I counted how many times the indices appear in 38 sessions.

W-index - met once
1 - 688
2 - 472
3 - 338
4 - 265
5 - 200
6 - 136
7 - 115
8 - 82
9 - 55
10 - 42
11 - 36
12 - 23
13 - 20
14 - 16
15 - 10
16 - 9
17 - 4
18 - 6
19 - 5
20 - 1
21 - 1
22 - 1
23 - 2
24 - 0
25 - 1
26 - 2
27 - 0
28 - 0
29 - 0
30 - 0
31 - 1

Z-index - met once
0 - 135
1 - 55
2 - 18
3 - 0
4 - 0
5 - 11
6 - 26
7 - 42
8 - 56
9 - 69
10 - 81
11 - 75
12 - 66
13 - 55
14 - 50
15 - 50
16 - 41
17 - 27
18 - 22
19 - 21
20 - 14
21 - 13
22 - 8
23 - 5
24 - 8
25 - 7
26 - 4
27 - 2
28 - 1
29 - 1

The graphs are not very detailed. And according to the above, you can better aim with the selected index boundaries.
InquisitorEA, 06.11.2011 15:29
InquisitorEA
Judging by the graph, it is better to replace > checkmark ESC-sequence > and write space on
(end of line)
then replace + with empty space
copied everything and put it in excel
Click, 05.11.2011 21:59
Click
is it also possible to display the current expectation coefficient for each number that comes up in the machine?
we can compare. maybe we need to start not from the maximum but from the norm, like in the forecast block. if the sector doesn't fall out normally - fuck it and look for the next one.

need a schedule
InquisitorEA, 05.11.2011 21:54
InquisitorEA
How can I quickly write these values in a column (or row) in Excel? Does anyone know?
Coin_8, 05.11.2011 21:32
Coin_8
1) And what if there are 2-3 negative ones in a row? Then you will have to cough up this tenfold loss for a very long time.
2) regarding the maximum expectations, yes, you need to look. In the [debug] line there will be a third number for both WIN and LOSS.
3) we solve an engineering problem. We don't touch the + and - positions (this is a fact) with a loan we can write out any rules and restrictions. So that in the total result (it is possible for all three) it is >= 0.
Click, 05.11.2011 21:27
Click
By the way, Pavel doesn't have two losing games in a row!!!!!!!!!!!
and this can be used for growth in a cool way. as Coin wrote, when losing, give the next game an order of magnitude cooler. the profit will cover everything and return to the previous bet.
Click, 05.11.2011 21:24
Click
Why don't we touch the forecasts?
maybe you need to look at what maximum expectations the numbers come true at and what they fail at and put the necessary plug.
Coin_8, 05.11.2011 21:07
Coin_8
A common engineering problem.
Let's take three typical "swing to zero" games:

InquisitorEA Start: 350 Min: 125 Max: 395 Finish: 125 Total spins: 159

-18 -18 -27 -36 +144 -18 -18 -27 -36 -18 -18 +72 -18 -18 -27 -36 -18 -18 -27 +108 -18 -18 -27 -36 -18 +72 -18 +72 -18 +72 -18 -18 -27 +108 -18 -18 -27 -36 -18 -18 -27 -36 -18 -18 -27


Heiskanen Start: 350 Min: 134 Max: 449 Finish: 134 Total spins: 157

-18 -18 -27 -36 -18 -18 +72 -18 -18 -27 -36 -18 +72 -18 -18 +72 -18 -18 -27 -36 +144 -18 -18 -27 -36 -18 +72 -18 -18 +72 -18 -18 -27 -36 +144 -18 -18 -27 +108 -18 -18 -27 -36 -18 -18 -27 +108 -18 +72 -18 -18 -27 +108 -18 -18 -27 -36 -18 -18 -27 -36 -18 -18 -27 -36 -18

InquisitorEA Start: 350 Min: 125 Max: 458 Finish: 143 Total spins: 336

-18 -18 -27 -36 -18 +72 -18 -18 +72 -18 +72 -18 -18 -27 +108 -18 -18 -27 -36 -18 -18 -27 -36 -18 +72 -18 -18 +72 -18 -18 +72 -18 -18 -27 -36 -18 -18 -27 +108 -18 -18 -27 -36 -18 +72 -18 -18 -27 -36 -18 +72 -18 -18 -27 -36 +144 -18 -18 -27 +108 -18 -18 +72 -18 -18 -27 -36 -18 -18 +72 -18 -18 -27 -36 -18 +72 -18 -18 +72 -18 -18 +72 -18 -18 -27 -36 -18 +72 -18 -18 -27 -36 +144 -18 +72 -18 -18 -27 -36 -18 +72 -18 +72 -18 -18 -27 -36 -18 -18 -27 +108 -18 -18 +72 -18 -18 -27 -36 -18 -18 -27 +108 -18 +72 -18 +72 -18 -18 -27 +108 -18 -18 -27 -36 -18 -18 -27 -36 -18 +72 -18 -18 -27 -36 +144 -18 +72 -18 -18 -27 -36 -18 -18 -27 -36 -18 +72 -18 -18 +72 -18 -18 -27 -36 -18 -18 -27

and decide: what needs to be done (we don't touch the forecast block at all) so that the overall result is at least 0.00 of the starting credits. And that's it, the casinos are screwed!
Coin_8, 05.11.2011 20:48
Coin_8
There are three options:
1) Negative expectation cannot be defeated. But if NIMB algorithms can do it, then we can learn too.
2) There is an error in our analysis and improvements.
A real-life story, I think. In the NImB group, analysts created an algorithm and gave it to technicians to implement. No matter how they programmed it, it doesn't work at all. The analysts are crying. They check the calculations, it should work, but it doesn't. In short, they found out after 2(!) years that the programmer forgot to put a comma in the code in one place. They still remember this incident at corporate events.
3) Madeleine-Feller is not suitable. But intuitively I believe in this strategy.

I'll tell the admin to check everything again. Maybe I made a mistake somewhere, when I wrote the server version of the machine instead of the client version.
Click, 05.11.2011 20:10
Click
I calculated here based on the reports starting from the comment that we watch the episodes separately.

final result

Pavel 17 small games = -288 chips (-16.94 avg.)
all other miners 66 games = -738 chips (-11.18 avg)

systematicity wins, but where is the +++++++++++++?

ADM13, 05.11.2011 16:29
ADM13
On the issue in Feller's reports:
quote from Buratino: "...if it turns out that the machine loses more than it wins, this means that the 9 numbers of the forecast mostly do not fall, which means you need to play the opposite way, bet all the numbers except these 9, and then your winnings on roulette will increase. But this is if there are many more misses than hits..."

If we turn Feller's optimization strategy for playing roulette in an online casino inside out, we easily get the anti-Feller: 9 numbers that will fall VERY-VERY rarely.

The idea is interesting, we must not lose it.
ADM13, 05.11.2011 16:18
ADM13
Imagine there is a sector of the wheel that has not appeared in 19 spins. It generates a prediction for the bet.
By that time, the random walk graph has already been constructed and Feller provides the necessary shift along the track.

To the question: reset the machine after 2-2-3-4 misses?
There were 19 past this sector, now it's 19+4=23. In theory, the probability of hitting only increases? Another thing is that MAYBE WE NEED TO DISABLE FELLER SHIFT AND ENABLE THE SECOND WAVE - DIRECT SIGHT? We need to look at this point. We are embedding [debug] to test such ideas.

To the question: after winning, do you often place bets on the same numbers?
That's right, the forecast generated, for example, the number 5 on the track, the shift for the bet gives a sector in the area of 2. We win. But the expectation of number 5 has not been reset, so we continue the forecast from 5 + shift. If the fall of 2 did not break the ladder indices of 5, then the forecast will remain in the same sector 2.
And it must be said that there are enough examples when, contrary to common sense, such repetitions work.
InquisitorEA, 05.11.2011 09:06
InquisitorEA
Yes, there will be fewer guesses per 100 spins, but if their effectiveness is higher than now, then perhaps it will be justified.
Palo, 05.11.2011 08:46
Palo
everything will be greatly stretched because after zeroing there are 10-20 idle ones
InquisitorEA, 05.11.2011 07:37
InquisitorEA
Maybe it's better to reset the machine's calculation if the entire progression block (2-2-3-4) goes by without a win?
InquisitorEA, 04.11.2011 15:43
InquisitorEA
After a winning spin, there is usually a losing one. And, as I noticed, after a win, bets are often made on the same numbers that just won. Maybe it makes sense to stop betting on the same numbers after a win and wait for the next batch of numbers from the machine?
Coin_8, 04.11.2011 14:29
Coin_8
1) We will debug the machine - we will post not only the video, but also logins for entering different casinos.

2) According to progressions: 2-2-3-4-6-6... (up to 50 chips per number) we accept as a working option.

3) I think, looking at the graph at the top of the article "Feller's Machine":

casino-mining.com ...

All miners' games can be abstracted into one giant game of roulette "for one hand" according to the same strategy. Despite the fact that the game is played by different people, at different stakes, in different casinos and at different times - it is still one egregor. And this huge combined game of Feller will have its giant ups and downs.

The main thing is to maintain the general upward trend.
tester37, 10/31/2011 06:39
tester37
give me a video of Feller playing BetVoyager. I would like to study the tactics of strikes in more detail

"the second ($1000-5000) for punches". Can you see this on video?
ADM13, 10/30/2011 10:22
ADM13
Let's clarify the new stage of testing.

As a result of the analysis of the algorithm graphs during the losing wave of the game, we implement the following assumptions:

1st layer. The machine plays with even bets ONLY WITHIN the FRAMEWORK of the expectation norm for each new forecast block (thus for a bet of 5 numbers - the norm is 37/5, for a bet of 9 numbers - the norm is 37/9, etc.). If the solution is not realized in this period, the expectation of the block solution completely stops.

Once positive results are achieved, we move on to profit maximization - to the 2nd layer game.
ADM13, 29.10.2011 09:15
ADM13
Thoughts when looking at the charts:

1) Feller demonstrates his pluses on long intervals of wandering. It is problematic to reduce this process GUARANTEEDLY to 100-200-500 spins.
2) The frequency of solutions is maximum at the 1-2 turn of the block.
3) An interesting strategic move can be made from the multi-level progression principle proposed by Coin:

* 1st level (game layer) The machine plays according to Feller with even bets. 1-1-1-1-1-1-1....
* The 2nd layer of the game includes ONLY the first 2 moves of each NEW forecast block.
It is on the 2nd layer that its own independent progression occurs.
For example 2-2 - 3-4 - 5-6 - 8-11 - 15-20 - 27-36 - 49

In this case, a session break can ONLY occur if 7 LOSS-WIN blocks are encountered in a row, where there is not a single block with a solution for 1-2 moves.
If you bet on red in a casino and you're stubbornly unlucky, try betting on red!
  • DLK
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Re: Progressions in the game for money

1 month 3 weeks ago - 1 month 3 weeks ago
#3
If you bet on red in a casino and you're stubbornly unlucky, try betting on red!

Attachments:

Re: Progressions in the game for money

1 week 3 days ago - 1 week 3 days ago
#4
Problems with strategies and progressions:

1. Eventually you will reach the maximum bet at the table. Once you do, you will not be able to increase your bets big enough to cover your losses.

2. Even when you win, the payouts are still unfair. For example, consider a European wheel with 37 pockets, but the payout is 35 to 1. If the payouts were fair, they would be 36 to 1, so one win in 37 spins would leave you with no change in your bankroll. Even if you do end up winning, the two points above ensure that you will lose. Sure, you can get lucky, but eventually your luck will run out.
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Re: Progressions in the game for money

1 week 3 days ago - 1 week 3 days ago
#5
If you're like most players, your strategy is to use a trigger and then progress your bets. A trigger is simply an event that you wait for before you place your bets. For example, a trigger might wait for 3 REDs to spin in a row. Your bet will double your bet size until you win. But again, this won't work because the odds haven't changed, the payouts have stayed the same, and all you're doing is betting different bets on separate spins.

Since progression is popular, it requires special attention.

Here is a typical betting sequence:
Bet 1 unit on red: LOSS
Bet 2 units in red: LOSS
Bet 4 units on red: LOSS
Bet 8 units on red: WIN
In this example, the player doubles the bet after losing. The player thinks they will "eventually win" and make a profit. They think their "chain of bets" is helping them win. But in reality, they are making a series of independent bets with these odds:
Bet 1 unit, odds 18/37, payout 1:1
Bet 2 units, odds 18/37, payout 1:1
Bet 4 units, odds 18/37, payout 1:1
Bet 8 units, odds 18/37, payout 1:1

What most players don't realize is that this is no different than 4 different players making 4 different bets. And the odds of winning and the payout are the same. So what has the player changed with the progression? Absolutely nothing, except the amount they bet.

The odds of winning or losing are the same on every spin. So if your system doesn't win with flat bets (no progression), it will fail with progression.

So will progression help you win? It's like asking whether changing your bet size will help you win or lose. You can get lucky and win big OR you can get unlucky and LOSE BIGGER.

Progression is a double-edged sword and the casino still has an edge.
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